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W7EES > SWPC 20.05.18 17:23l 51 Lines 1640 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 3638_W7EES
Read: GUEST
Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<IR2UBX<EA2RCF<LU9DCE<GB7YEW<N9PMO<W9ABA<N9LYA<W7EES
Sent: 180519/0012Z 3638@W7EES.OR.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.16
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 138 Issued at 2200Z on 18 May 2018
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17/2100Z to
18/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (19 May, 20 May, 21 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 478 km/s at 18/0126Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at
17/2324Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
18/0126Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 630 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (19 May, 20 May, 21
May).
III. Event probabilities 19 May-21 May
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 18 May 069
Predicted 19 May-21 May 069/069/068
90 Day Mean 18 May 069
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 May 009/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 18 May 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 19 May-21 May 006/005-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 May-21 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 15/15/15
Major-severe storm 10/10/10
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