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CX2SA > SWPC 24.05.18 00:33l 62 Lines 2298 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 43326_CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 180523/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:43326 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:43326_CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2018 May 23 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 143 Issued at 2200Z on 23 May 2018
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z to
23/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
23/1821Z. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (24 May,
25 May, 26 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 548 km/s at 23/1718Z. Total IMF reached 11
nT at 23/0546Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at
23/0523Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 812 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (24 May), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (25 May) and quiet levels on day three (26 May).
III. Event probabilities 24 May-26 May
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 23 May 073
Predicted 24 May-26 May 074/075/075
90 Day Mean 23 May 069
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 May 055/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 May 010/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 May-26 May 008/010-008/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 May-26 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/25/15
Minor Storm 10/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 30/30/20
Major-severe storm 40/30/20
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
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