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W7EES > SWPC 24.05.18 22:04l 46 Lines 1582 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 3644_W7EES
Read: GUEST
Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<IR2UBX<DB0RES<DB0ERF<OK0NAG<IK6ZDE<IW0QNL<JH4XSY<JM1YTR<JE7YGF<
LU4ECL<N0KFQ<NS2B<N9PMO<N9LYA<W7EES
Sent: 180523/1243Z 3644@W7EES.OR.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.16
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 141 Issued at 2200Z on 21 May 2018
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20/2100Z to
21/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (22 May, 23 May, 24 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 425 km/s at 21/0042Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 846 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (22 May, 23 May) and
quiet to unsettled levels on day three (24 May).
III. Event probabilities 22 May-24 May
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 21 May 070
Predicted 22 May-24 May 070/071/071
90 Day Mean 21 May 069
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 May 003/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 21 May 004/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 22 May-24 May 011/012-011/012-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 May-24 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/30/15
Minor Storm 10/10/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 30/30/25
Major-severe storm 40/40/25
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