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CX2SA > SWPC 10.04.15 00:22l 64 Lines 2370 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 18611_CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 150409/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:18611 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:18611_CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2015 Apr 09 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 99 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Apr 2015
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to
09/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C6 event observed at
09/1901Z from Region 2320 (S12W25). There are currently 2 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (10 Apr,
11 Apr, 12 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
429 km/s at 09/1453Z. Total IMF reached 14 nT at 09/2034Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 09/0928Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 271 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (10 Apr), quiet to
unsettled levels on day two (11 Apr) and quiet levels on day three (12
Apr).
III. Event probabilities 10 Apr-12 Apr
Class M 15/15/15
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 09 Apr 113
Predicted 10 Apr-12 Apr 115/115/115
90 Day Mean 09 Apr 129
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Apr 004/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Apr 014/018
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Apr-12 Apr 014/015-007/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Apr-12 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/15/15
Minor Storm 20/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/20/20
Minor Storm 25/25/25
Major-severe storm 50/20/20
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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