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CX2SA > SWPC 31.05.18 00:23l 62 Lines 2231 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 44040_CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 180530/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:44040 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:44040_CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2018 May 30 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 150 Issued at 2200Z on 30 May 2018
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29/2100Z to
30/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (31
May, 01 Jun, 02 Jun).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 389 km/s at 30/1825Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
30/1352Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -2 nT at
30/0412Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 135 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (31 May), quiet to minor storm levels
on day two (01 Jun) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day three (02
Jun).
III. Event probabilities 31 May-02 Jun
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 30 May 075
Predicted 31 May-02 Jun 075/074/073
90 Day Mean 30 May 070
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 May 005/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 30 May 004/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 31 May-02 Jun 006/005-012/016-019/026
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 May-02 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/35/35
Minor Storm 01/25/30
Major-severe storm 01/10/10
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/10/10
Minor Storm 20/25/20
Major-severe storm 10/60/65
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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