| |
W7EES > SWPC 25.06.18 23:35l 49 Lines 1764 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 3850_W7EES
Read: GUEST
Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<IR2UBX<DB0RES<DB0ERF<OK0NAG<OK0NBR<OK2PEN<SV1CMG<PI8BDG<AB0AF<
KF5JRV<N9LCF<KC8KPM<N9LYA<W7EES
Sent: 180625/0053Z 3850@W7EES.OR.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.16
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 175 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Jun 2018
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23/2100Z to
24/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (25 Jun,
26 Jun, 27 Jun).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 513 km/s at 23/2343Z. Total IMF reached 9
nT at 23/2137Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at
23/2138Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 1132 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (25 Jun), quiet to active
levels on day two (26 Jun) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day
three (27 Jun).
III. Event probabilities 25 Jun-27 Jun
Class M 05/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 24 Jun 075
Predicted 25 Jun-27 Jun 075/072/072
90 Day Mean 24 Jun 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Jun 015/018
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Jun 008/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Jun-27 Jun 008/008-007/010-016/025
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Jun-27 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/30/40
Minor Storm 05/10/35
Major-severe storm 01/01/10
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/05
Minor Storm 25/25/25
Major-severe storm 25/40/70
Read previous mail | Read next mail
| |
