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W7EES > SWPC 09.07.18 02:09l 48 Lines 1687 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 3974_W7EES
Read: GUEST
Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<IR2UBX<IW0QNL<VE2PKT<GB7YEW<AB0AF<KF5JRV<N9LYA<W7EES
Sent: 180705/2314Z 3974@W7EES.OR.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.16
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 186 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Jul 2018
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to
05/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (06 Jul, 07 Jul, 08 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 465 km/s at 05/1945Z. Total IMF
reached 12 nT at 05/1945Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-8 nT at 05/1111Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 1221 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (06 Jul) and quiet levels on
days two and three (07 Jul, 08 Jul).
III. Event probabilities 06 Jul-08 Jul
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 Jul 068
Predicted 06 Jul-08 Jul 068/068/070
90 Day Mean 05 Jul 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Jul 004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Jul 012/016
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Jul-08 Jul 011/005-005/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Jul-08 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/15/10
Minor Storm 10/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/20/20
Major-severe storm 40/20/15
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