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W7EES > SWPC 09.07.18 02:09l 49 Lines 1741 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 3977_W7EES
Read: GUEST
Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<LU4ECL<ZL2BAU<GB7YEW<AB0AF<KF5JRV<N9LYA<W7EES
Sent: 180708/2249Z 3977@W7EES.OR.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.16
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 189 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Jul 2018
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to
08/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (09
Jul, 10 Jul, 11 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 498 km/s at 08/1210Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
07/2143Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -2 nT at
08/0351Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 348 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (09 Jul), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (10 Jul) and quiet levels on day three (11 Jul).
III. Event probabilities 09 Jul-11 Jul
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 08 Jul 072
Predicted 09 Jul-11 Jul 072/072/074
90 Day Mean 08 Jul 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Jul 006/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Jul 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Jul-11 Jul 010/012-007/008-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Jul-11 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/15/15
Minor Storm 05/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 30/25/20
Major-severe storm 35/20/20
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