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W7EES > SWPC 13.07.18 01:52l 48 Lines 1601 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 4091_W7EES
Read: GUEST
Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<IR2UBX<IW2OHX<IW0QNL<IK6ZDE<VE2PKT<VK2DOT<VK2IO<GB7YEW<AB0AF<
NS2B<N9PMO<N9LYA<W7EES
Sent: 180712/2332Z 4091@W7EES.OR.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.16
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 193 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Jul 2018
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to
12/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (13 Jul, 14 Jul, 15 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 461 km/s at 12/1803Z. Total IMF reached 9
nT at 12/0500Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at
12/0500Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (13 Jul, 14 Jul) and quiet to
unsettled levels on day three (15 Jul).
III. Event probabilities 13 Jul-15 Jul
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 Jul 072
Predicted 13 Jul-15 Jul 072/072/072
90 Day Mean 12 Jul 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Jul 008/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Jul 008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Jul-15 Jul 006/005-006/005-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Jul-15 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/25
Major-severe storm 15/15/20
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