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CX2SA > SWPC 16.04.15 00:22l 61 Lines 2270 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 18882_CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 150415/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:18882 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:18882_CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2015 Apr 15 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 105 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Apr 2015
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to
15/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
day one (16 Apr) and likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an
X-class flare on days two and three (17 Apr, 18 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak
speed of 665 km/s at 15/1556Z. Total IMF reached 17 nT at 15/0503Z. The
maximum southward component of Bz reached -12 nT at 15/0821Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (16 Apr) and quiet
levels on days two and three (17 Apr, 18 Apr).
III. Event probabilities 16 Apr-18 Apr
Class M 40/55/55
Class X 10/20/20
Proton 01/05/05
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 Apr 155
Predicted 16 Apr-18 Apr 160/160/165
90 Day Mean 15 Apr 129
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Apr 009/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Apr 017/022
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Apr-18 Apr 012/015-007/008-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Apr-18 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/20/15
Minor Storm 15/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/20/15
Minor Storm 30/25/25
Major-severe storm 45/25/20
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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