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W7EES > SWPC 03.08.18 00:12l 52 Lines 1900 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
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Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
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Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 196 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Jul 2018
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to
15/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (16 Jul, 17 Jul, 18 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 477 km/s at 14/2115Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 161 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (16 Jul) and quiet levels
on days two and three (17 Jul, 18 Jul).
III. Event probabilities 16 Jul-18 Jul
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 Jul 072
Predicted 16 Jul-18 Jul 072/072/072
90 Day Mean 15 Jul 072
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Jul 004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Jul 005/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Jul-18 Jul 007/008-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Jul-18 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/20/20
Major-severe storm 20/15/15
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