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W7EES > SWPC 03.08.18 00:12l 53 Lines 1927 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 4106_W7EES
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Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
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Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 198 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Jul 2018
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z to
17/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (18 Jul, 19 Jul, 20 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 455 km/s at 17/1815Z. Total IMF reached 14
nT at 16/2120Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at
17/0339Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (18 Jul, 19 Jul) and quiet to
active levels on day three (20 Jul).
III. Event probabilities 18 Jul-20 Jul
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 17 Jul 071
Predicted 18 Jul-20 Jul 070/070/070
90 Day Mean 17 Jul 072
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Jul 008/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Jul 005/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Jul-20 Jul 006/005-006/005-012/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Jul-20 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/30
Minor Storm 01/01/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/30
Major-severe storm 15/15/40
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