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W7EES > SWPC 09.08.18 02:08l 56 Lines 2011 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 4130_W7EES
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Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
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Sent: 180805/2227Z 4130@W7EES.OR.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.16
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Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 217 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Aug 2018
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04/2100Z to
05/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (06 Aug, 07 Aug, 08 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 367 km/s at 05/0516Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at
05/1531Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
05/0836Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 126 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (06 Aug) and quiet to
active levels on days two and three (07 Aug, 08 Aug).
III. Event probabilities 06 Aug-08 Aug
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 Aug 069
Predicted 06 Aug-08 Aug 069/069/069
90 Day Mean 05 Aug 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Aug 008/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Aug 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Aug-08 Aug 007/008-009/012-011/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Aug-08 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/30/30
Minor Storm 01/10/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/30/30
Major-severe storm 20/40/40
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