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W7EES > SWPC 13.08.18 17:17l 48 Lines 1598 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 4176_W7EES
Read: GUEST
Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<IV3ONZ<IZ3LSV<ED1ZAC<LU4ECL<LU9DCE<GB7YEW<AB0AF<NS2B<KQ0I<
W9ABA<N9LYA<W7EES
Sent: 180812/2349Z 4176@W7EES.OR.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.16
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 224 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Aug 2018
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to
12/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (13 Aug, 14 Aug, 15 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 429 km/s at 12/2053Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 11/2159Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
12/1732Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (13 Aug) and quiet levels
on days two and three (14 Aug, 15 Aug).
III. Event probabilities 13 Aug-15 Aug
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 Aug 068
Predicted 13 Aug-15 Aug 068/068/068
90 Day Mean 12 Aug 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Aug 011/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Aug 005/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Aug-15 Aug 007/008-006/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Aug-15 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/10/10
Minor Storm 05/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/20/20
Major-severe storm 20/10/10
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