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W7EES > SWPC 14.08.18 02:05l 45 Lines 1483 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 4206_W7EES
Read: GUEST
Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<IZ3LSV<IW0QNL<JH4XSY<JM1YTR<JE7YGF<N9PMO<AB0AF<KF5JRV<N9LYA<
W7EES
Sent: 180813/2255Z 4206@W7EES.OR.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.16
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 225 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Aug 2018
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12/2100Z to
13/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (14 Aug, 15 Aug, 16 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 442 km/s at 13/1217Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (14 Aug) and quiet to active levels on
days two and three (15 Aug, 16 Aug).
III. Event probabilities 14 Aug-16 Aug
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 Aug 068
Predicted 14 Aug-16 Aug 068/068/068
90 Day Mean 13 Aug 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Aug 006/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Aug 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Aug-16 Aug 006/005-009/012-013/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Aug-16 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/30/35
Minor Storm 01/10/20
Major-severe storm 01/01/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/15/10
Minor Storm 20/25/25
Major-severe storm 10/40/50
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