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CX2SA > SWPC 15.08.18 23:29l 59 Lines 2104 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 50635_CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 180815/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:50635 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:50635_CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2018 Aug 15 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 227 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Aug 2018
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14/2100Z to
15/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (16 Aug, 17 Aug, 18 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 497 km/s at 15/1450Z. Total IMF reached 11
nT at 15/1840Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at
15/1053Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (16 Aug), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (17 Aug) and quiet levels on day three (18 Aug).
III. Event probabilities 16 Aug-18 Aug
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 Aug 069
Predicted 16 Aug-18 Aug 069/069/069
90 Day Mean 15 Aug 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Aug 006/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Aug 012/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Aug-18 Aug 013/015-010/010-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Aug-18 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/20/10
Minor Storm 15/05/01
Major-severe storm 05/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/15/20
Minor Storm 25/25/20
Major-severe storm 50/25/10
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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