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W7EES > SWPC 19.08.18 21:00l 55 Lines 2027 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 4290_W7EES
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Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
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Sent: 180819/0330Z 4290@W7EES.OR.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.16
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Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 230 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Aug 2018
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17/2100Z to
18/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (19 Aug, 20 Aug, 21 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 573 km/s at 17/2215Z. Total IMF reached 5
nT at 18/0216Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
18/0548Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 7217 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (19 Aug) and unsettled to
active levels on days two and three (20 Aug, 21 Aug).
III. Event probabilities 19 Aug-21 Aug
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 18 Aug 067
Predicted 19 Aug-21 Aug 068/068/068
90 Day Mean 18 Aug 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Aug 014/013
Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Aug 010/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Aug-21 Aug 007/008-016/020-014/018
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Aug-21 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/35/35
Minor Storm 05/15/15
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/10/10
Minor Storm 30/25/25
Major-severe storm 30/50/50
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