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W7EES > SWPC 20.08.18 02:14l 52 Lines 1691 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 4309_W7EES
Read: GUEST
Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<IZ3LSV<IW0QNL<VE2PKT<LU3DVN<XE1FH<W9ABA<KE0GB<KF5JRV<N9LYA<
W7EES
Sent: 180819/2245Z 4309@W7EES.OR.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.16
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 231 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Aug 2018
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to
19/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (20 Aug, 21 Aug, 22 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 499 km/s at 19/0015Z. Total IMF reached 12 nT at
19/1808Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
19/1638Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 18287 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to active levels on days one and two (20 Aug, 21 Aug)
and quiet to active levels on day three (22 Aug).
III. Event probabilities 20 Aug-22 Aug
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 Aug 067
Predicted 20 Aug-22 Aug 067/067/067
90 Day Mean 19 Aug 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Aug 011/015
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Aug 007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Aug-22 Aug 016/020-014/018-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Aug-22 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/35/30
Minor Storm 15/15/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/10/15
Minor Storm 25/25/30
Major-severe storm 50/50/40
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