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W7EES > SWPC 21.08.18 01:40l 47 Lines 1696 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 4323_W7EES
Read: GUEST
Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<IZ3LSV<IW0QNL<JH4XSY<JE7YGF<LU4ECL<N0KFQ<NS2B<N9PMO<N9LYA<
W7EES
Sent: 180820/2237Z 4323@W7EES.OR.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.16
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 232 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Aug 2018
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19/2100Z to
20/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (21 Aug, 22 Aug, 23 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 708 km/s at 20/1717Z. Total IMF reached 13
nT at 20/0310Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at
20/0226Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 14785 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to active levels on day one (21 Aug) and quiet to
active levels on days two and three (22 Aug, 23 Aug).
III. Event probabilities 21 Aug-23 Aug
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 20 Aug 068
Predicted 21 Aug-23 Aug 068/070/070
90 Day Mean 20 Aug 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Aug 008/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Aug 013/018
Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Aug-23 Aug 014/018-010/012-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Aug-23 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/30/30
Minor Storm 15/10/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/15/15
Minor Storm 25/30/30
Major-severe storm 50/40/40
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