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W7EES > SWPC 27.08.18 17:29l 52 Lines 1781 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 4430_W7EES
Read: GUEST
Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<IZ3LSV<IK6ZDE<VE2PKT<LU3DVN<LU9DCE<OK2PEN<N3HYM<N8HEE<KM8V<
KE0GB<AB0AF<KF5JRV<N9LYA<W7EES
Sent: 180827/0153Z 4430@W7EES.OR.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.16
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 238 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Aug 2018
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25/2100Z to
26/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one and two (27 Aug, 28
Aug) and expected to be very low on day three (29 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at active to severe storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 553 km/s at 26/1838Z. Total IMF
reached 21 nT at 26/1227Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-17 nT at 26/0231Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 5893 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (27 Aug) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (28 Aug, 29 Aug).
III. Event probabilities 27 Aug-29 Aug
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 26 Aug 071
Predicted 27 Aug-29 Aug 069/069/069
90 Day Mean 26 Aug 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Aug 012/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Aug 046/078
Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Aug-29 Aug 013/016-006/008-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Aug-29 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/20/25
Minor Storm 20/05/05
Major-severe storm 05/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/15/20
Minor Storm 25/25/30
Major-severe storm 50/30/30
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