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CX2SA > SWPC 21.04.15 00:22l 62 Lines 2332 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 19132_CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 150420/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:19132 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:19132_CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2015 Apr 20 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 110 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Apr 2015
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19/2100Z to
20/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
20/1954Z. There are currently 8 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (21
Apr, 22 Apr, 23 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
437 km/s at 20/2100Z. Total IMF reached 13 nT at 20/2042Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 20/0850Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2619 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on days one and two (21 Apr, 22
Apr) and quiet to active levels on day three (23 Apr).
III. Event probabilities 21 Apr-23 Apr
Class M 15/15/15
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 20 Apr 150
Predicted 21 Apr-23 Apr 150/155/155
90 Day Mean 20 Apr 130
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Apr 009/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Apr 010/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Apr-23 Apr 024/035-022/027-011/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Apr-23 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 45/45/30
Minor Storm 35/25/05
Major-severe storm 10/05/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 05/05/15
Minor Storm 20/20/30
Major-severe storm 75/65/35
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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