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W7EES > SWPC 01.09.18 17:05l 54 Lines 2003 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
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Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
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Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 243 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Aug 2018
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z to
31/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (01 Sep, 02 Sep, 03 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 31/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 405 km/s at 31/0755Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at
31/1610Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
31/1158Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 61000 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (01 Sep, 02 Sep) and quiet to
unsettled levels on day three (03 Sep).
III. Event probabilities 01 Sep-03 Sep
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 31 Aug 068
Predicted 01 Sep-03 Sep 068/068/068
90 Day Mean 31 Aug 070
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Aug 005/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 31 Aug 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Sep-03 Sep 006/005-006/005-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Sep-03 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/20
Minor Storm 01/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/15/25
Major-severe storm 15/10/25
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