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W7EES > SWPC 04.09.18 02:01l 48 Lines 1675 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 4771_W7EES
Read: GUEST
Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<IR2UBX<SR1BSZ<LU4ECL<N0KFQ<NS2B<KQ0I<W9ABA<N9LYA<W7EES
Sent: 180903/2306Z 4771@W7EES.OR.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.16
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 246 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Sep 2018
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to
03/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (04 Sep, 05 Sep, 06 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 355 km/s at 02/2136Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
03/0343Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
03/1435Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 16537 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (04 Sep, 05 Sep) and quiet to
unsettled levels on day three (06 Sep).
III. Event probabilities 04 Sep-06 Sep
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 Sep 068
Predicted 04 Sep-06 Sep 068/068/068
90 Day Mean 03 Sep 070
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Sep 005/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Sep 006/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Sep-06 Sep 006/005-006/005-007/007
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Sep-06 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/10/10
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/20/25
Major-severe storm 20/15/20
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