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W7EES > SWPC 10.09.18 01:49l 51 Lines 1723 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 4871_W7EES
Read: GUEST
Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<IR2UBX<SR1BSZ<OK0NBR<OK0PBR<OK2PEN<N3HYM<N9PMO<VE1MPF<W9ABA<
N9LYA<W7EES
Sent: 180909/2325Z 4871@W7EES.OR.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.16
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 252 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Sep 2018
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to
09/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (10 Sep, 11 Sep, 12 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 436 km/s at 08/2114Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at
09/1259Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
09/1551Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 898 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (10 Sep), unsettled to major
storm levels on day two (11 Sep) and quiet to minor storm levels on day
three (12 Sep).
III. Event probabilities 10 Sep-12 Sep
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 09 Sep 068
Predicted 10 Sep-12 Sep 070/070/070
90 Day Mean 09 Sep 070
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Sep 005/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Sep 006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Sep-12 Sep 011/012-023/035-012/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Sep-12 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/30/35
Minor Storm 25/35/30
Major-severe storm 10/25/10
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/05/05
Minor Storm 25/15/20
Major-severe storm 65/80/70
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