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CX2SA > SWPC 22.04.15 00:23l 65 Lines 2368 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 19164_CX2SA
Read: GUEST
Subj: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA
Sent: 150421/2219Z @:CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM #:19164 [Salto] FBB7.00e $:19164_CX2SA
From: CX2SA@CX2SA.SAL.URY.SOAM
To : SWPC@WW
:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2015 Apr 21 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 111 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Apr 2015
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20/2100Z to
21/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M4 event observed at
21/1545Z from Region 2322 (N11W87). There are currently 9 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (22 Apr, 23 Apr,
24 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to active levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak
speed of 628 km/s at 21/0632Z. Total IMF reached 14 nT at 20/2127Z. The
maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 21/0249Z. Electrons
greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1433
pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (22 Apr), quiet to
active levels on day two (23 Apr) and quiet levels on day three (24
Apr).
III. Event probabilities 22 Apr-24 Apr
Class M 30/30/30
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 05/05/05
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 21 Apr 154
Predicted 22 Apr-24 Apr 155/160/160
90 Day Mean 21 Apr 130
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Apr 009/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Apr 020/031
Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Apr-24 Apr 019/025-015/015-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Apr-24 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 45/30/20
Minor Storm 25/05/05
Major-severe storm 05/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 05/15/15
Minor Storm 20/30/25
Major-severe storm 65/35/25
___________________________________________________________
Automatic packet bulletin created with information received
by cx2sa.net from the SWPC Space Weather Prediction Center.
___________________________________________________________
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