| |
W7EES > SWPC 21.09.18 18:45l 47 Lines 1609 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 5037_W7EES
Read: GUEST
Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<IR2UBX<SR1BSZ<OK0NBR<OK2PEN<N3HYM<NS2B<N9PMO<N9LYA<W7EES
Sent: 180921/0001Z 5037@W7EES.OR.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.16
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 263 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Sep 2018
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19/2100Z to
20/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (21 Sep, 22 Sep, 23 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 433 km/s at 20/0041Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 8688 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (21 Sep), quiet to unsettled levels on
day two (22 Sep) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day three (23
Sep).
III. Event probabilities 21 Sep-23 Sep
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 20 Sep 067
Predicted 21 Sep-23 Sep 067/067/067
90 Day Mean 20 Sep 069
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Sep 004/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Sep 003/003
Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Sep-23 Sep 005/005-008/010-017/022
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Sep-23 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/25/35
Minor Storm 01/10/25
Major-severe storm 01/01/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/10
Minor Storm 20/30/30
Major-severe storm 20/40/55
Read previous mail | Read next mail
| |
