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W7EES > SWPC 26.09.18 11:51l 49 Lines 1688 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 5113_W7EES
Read: GUEST
Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<IR2UBX<SR1BSZ<EA2RCF<LU9DCE<N3HYM<NS2B<N9PMO<N9LYA<W7EES
Sent: 180925/2311Z 5113@W7EES.OR.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.16
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 268 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Sep 2018
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24/2100Z to
25/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (26 Sep, 27 Sep, 28 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 444 km/s at 25/0627Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 25/1457Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
25/1050Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 6137 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (26 Sep) and quiet levels
on days two and three (27 Sep, 28 Sep).
III. Event probabilities 26 Sep-28 Sep
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 25 Sep 068
Predicted 26 Sep-28 Sep 068/068/068
90 Day Mean 25 Sep 069
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Sep 005/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Sep 009/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Sep-28 Sep 007/008-006/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Sep-28 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/10/10
Minor Storm 05/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/20/20
Major-severe storm 25/15/15
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