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W7EES > SWPC 28.09.18 01:41l 48 Lines 1651 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 5143_W7EES
Read: GUEST
Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<IR2UBX<SR1BSZ<EA2RCF<ZL2BAU<N9PMO<KC8KPM<N9LYA<W7EES
Sent: 180927/2314Z 5143@W7EES.OR.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.16
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 270 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Sep 2018
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26/2100Z to
27/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (28 Sep, 29 Sep, 30 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 448 km/s at 27/0338Z. Total IMF reached 5
nT at 26/2114Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
27/2039Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 3210 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (28 Sep, 29 Sep, 30
Sep).
III. Event probabilities 28 Sep-30 Sep
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 27 Sep 067
Predicted 28 Sep-30 Sep 068/068/068
90 Day Mean 27 Sep 069
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Sep 006/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Sep 006/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Sep-30 Sep 005/005-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Sep-30 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor Storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/20/20
Major-severe storm 15/15/15
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