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W7EES > SWPC 03.10.18 14:32l 48 Lines 1683 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 5259_W7EES
Read: GUEST
Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<IR2UBX<SR1BSZ<LU4ECL<VE2PKT<N9PMO<KC8KPM<N9LYA<W7EES
Sent: 181002/2205Z 5259@W7EES.OR.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.16
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 275 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Oct 2018
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to
02/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (03 Oct, 04 Oct, 05 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 537 km/s at 02/0644Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 01/2214Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
01/2233Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 768 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (03 Oct, 04 Oct)
and quiet levels on day three (05 Oct).
III. Event probabilities 03 Oct-05 Oct
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 02 Oct 067
Predicted 03 Oct-05 Oct 068/068/068
90 Day Mean 02 Oct 069
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Oct 006/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Oct 008/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Oct-05 Oct 008/008-007/008-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Oct-05 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/20/20
Minor Storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/25/25
Major-severe storm 30/30/30
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