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W7EES > SWPC 05.10.18 20:17l 48 Lines 1692 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 5278_W7EES
Read: GUEST
Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<IR2UBX<IW2OHX<IW0QNL<VE2PKT<N9PMO<N9LYA<W7EES
Sent: 181004/2231Z 5278@W7EES.OR.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.16
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 277 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Oct 2018
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to
04/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (05 Oct, 06 Oct, 07 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 514 km/s at 04/0010Z. Total IMF reached 9
nT at 03/2234Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
03/2120Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 954 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (05 Oct, 06 Oct) and unsettled
to minor storm levels on day three (07 Oct).
III. Event probabilities 05 Oct-07 Oct
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 Oct 067
Predicted 05 Oct-07 Oct 068/068/068
90 Day Mean 04 Oct 069
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Oct 004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Oct 004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Oct-07 Oct 005/008-006/005-013/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Oct-07 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/10/35
Minor Storm 05/01/30
Major-severe storm 01/01/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/20/05
Minor Storm 25/20/20
Major-severe storm 30/10/65
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