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W7EES > SWPC 07.10.18 17:05l 49 Lines 1635 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 5309_W7EES
Read: GUEST
Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<IR2UBX<IW0QNL<JH4XSY<JE7YGF<N9PMO<W9ABA<N9LYA<W7EES
Sent: 181006/2314Z 5309@W7EES.OR.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.16
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 279 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Oct 2018
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05/2100Z to
06/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (07 Oct, 08 Oct, 09 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 377 km/s at 05/2120Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 408 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to major storm levels on day one (07 Oct), unsettled to
major storm levels on day two (08 Oct) and quiet to active levels on day
three (09 Oct).
III. Event probabilities 07 Oct-09 Oct
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 06 Oct 069
Predicted 07 Oct-09 Oct 069/069/069
90 Day Mean 06 Oct 069
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Oct 008/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Oct 006/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Oct-09 Oct 017/024-025/035-014/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Oct-09 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/35/35
Minor Storm 35/35/15
Major-severe storm 20/20/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 05/05/10
Minor Storm 20/20/25
Major-severe storm 75/75/50
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