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W7EES > SWPC 10.10.18 19:37l 57 Lines 2032 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 5334_W7EES
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Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
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Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 281 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Oct 2018
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07/2100Z to
08/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (09 Oct, 10 Oct, 11 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 600 km/s at 07/2336Z. Total IMF
reached 8 nT at 07/2145Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-6 nT at 08/0239Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 10717 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (09 Oct, 10 Oct) and
quiet to unsettled levels on day three (11 Oct).
III. Event probabilities 09 Oct-11 Oct
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 08 Oct 069
Predicted 09 Oct-11 Oct 068/068/068
90 Day Mean 08 Oct 069
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Oct 013/021
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Oct 023/029
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Oct-11 Oct 014/015-011/012-009/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Oct-11 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/30/25
Minor Storm 15/10/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 30/30/25
Major-severe storm 40/40/35
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