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W7EES > SWPC 17.10.18 01:58l 52 Lines 1945 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
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Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
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Sent: 181016/2318Z 5422@W7EES.OR.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.16
>From w7ees%w7ees.or.usa.noam@i0ojj.ampr.org Wed Oct 17 01:51:59 2018
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Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 289 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Oct 2018
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to
16/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (17 Oct, 18 Oct, 19 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 611 km/s at 15/2336Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1323 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (17 Oct), quiet to unsettled levels on
day two (18 Oct) and unsettled to active levels on day three (19 Oct).
III. Event probabilities 17 Oct-19 Oct
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 Oct 070
Predicted 17 Oct-19 Oct 070/070/070
90 Day Mean 16 Oct 069
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Oct 007/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Oct 006/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Oct-19 Oct 005/005-007/008-014/018
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Oct-19 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/25/35
Minor Storm 01/10/20
Major-severe storm 01/01/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/10
Minor Storm 20/25/25
Major-severe storm 20/35/55
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