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W7EES > SWPC 18.10.18 00:31l 48 Lines 1689 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 5447_W7EES
Read: GUEST
Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<IZ3LSV<IK6ZDE<VE2PKT<N9PMO<KC8KPM<N9LYA<N3HYM<W7EES
Sent: 181017/2210Z 5447@W7EES.OR.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.16
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 290 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Oct 2018
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z to
17/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (18 Oct, 19 Oct, 20 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 490 km/s at 16/2145Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
17/0712Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
17/0558Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 1463 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (18 Oct, 20
Oct) and quiet to minor storm levels on day two (19 Oct).
III. Event probabilities 18 Oct-20 Oct
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 17 Oct 070
Predicted 18 Oct-20 Oct 070/070/070
90 Day Mean 17 Oct 069
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Oct 004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Oct 003/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Oct-20 Oct 007/008-014/018-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Oct-20 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/35/30
Minor Storm 10/25/10
Major-severe storm 01/05/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/10/15
Minor Storm 25/25/30
Major-severe storm 35/60/40
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