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W7EES > SWPC 19.10.18 03:56l 46 Lines 1588 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 5474_W7EES
Read: GUEST
Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<IZ3LSV<IK6ZDE<VE2PKT<N9PMO<NS2B<N3HYM<W7EES
Sent: 181019/0119Z 5474@W7EES.OR.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.16
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 291 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Oct 2018
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17/2100Z to
18/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (19 Oct, 20 Oct, 21 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 387 km/s at 18/0023Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1363 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (19 Oct) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (20 Oct, 21 Oct).
III. Event probabilities 19 Oct-21 Oct
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 18 Oct 070
Predicted 19 Oct-21 Oct 070/070/070
90 Day Mean 18 Oct 069
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Oct 003/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Oct 002/003
Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Oct-21 Oct 014/018-008/010-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Oct-21 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/30/20
Minor Storm 25/10/05
Major-severe storm 05/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/15/15
Minor Storm 25/30/25
Major-severe storm 60/40/25
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