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W7EES > SWPC 20.10.18 01:38l 53 Lines 1925 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
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Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
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Sent: 181019/2319Z 5503@W7EES.OR.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.16
>From w7ees%w7ees.or.usa.noam@i0ojj.ampr.org Sat Oct 20 01:34:30 2018
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Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 292 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Oct 2018
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to
19/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (20 Oct, 21 Oct, 22 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 327 km/s at 19/0053Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1333 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (20 Oct), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (21 Oct) and quiet levels on day three (22 Oct).
III. Event probabilities 20 Oct-22 Oct
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 Oct 070
Predicted 20 Oct-22 Oct 070/070/070
90 Day Mean 19 Oct 069
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Oct 000/000
Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Oct 006/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Oct-22 Oct 012/015-008/008-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Oct-22 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/15/10
Minor Storm 10/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/20
Minor Storm 25/25/20
Major-severe storm 40/25/10
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