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W7EES > SWPC 22.10.18 04:29l 51 Lines 1677 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 5518_W7EES
Read: GUEST
Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<IR2UBX<SR1BSZ<OK0NBR<OK0PBR<OK2PEN<CX2SA<N9PMO<JE7YGF<LU4ECL<
LU9DCE<N3HYM<W7EES
Sent: 181021/2326Z 5518@W7EES.OR.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.16
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 294 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Oct 2018
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20/2100Z to
21/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (22 Oct, 23 Oct, 24 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 399 km/s at 21/1429Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at
21/1149Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
21/1129Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 1192 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (22 Oct, 23 Oct) and quiet to
unsettled levels on day three (24 Oct).
III. Event probabilities 22 Oct-24 Oct
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 21 Oct 071
Predicted 22 Oct-24 Oct 070/069/069
90 Day Mean 21 Oct 069
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Oct 000/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Oct 004/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Oct-24 Oct 006/006-005/005-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Oct-24 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/25
Minor Storm 01/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/20/15
Minor Storm 20/20/30
Major-severe storm 10/10/30
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