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W7EES > SWPC 24.10.18 01:24l 46 Lines 1586 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 5594_W7EES
Read: GUEST
Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<CX2SA<N9PMO<N3HYM<W7EES
Sent: 181023/2306Z 5594@W7EES.OR.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.16
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 296 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Oct 2018
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z to
23/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (24 Oct, 25 Oct, 26 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 351 km/s at 23/0847Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
23/1031Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
23/1016Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (24 Oct, 25 Oct)
and quiet levels on day three (26 Oct).
III. Event probabilities 24 Oct-26 Oct
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 23 Oct 072
Predicted 24 Oct-26 Oct 072/072/070
90 Day Mean 23 Oct 069
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Oct 005/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Oct 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Oct-26 Oct 010/012-009/008-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Oct-26 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/15/15
Minor Storm 05/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 30/25/25
Major-severe storm 30/20/20
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