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W7EES > SWPC 08.11.18 03:49l 48 Lines 1690 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 5811_W7EES
Read: GUEST
Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<IZ3LSV<IW0QNL<JH4XSY<JE7YGF<N9PMO<KC8KPM<K9BIF<W9JUN<W7EES
Sent: 181108/0124Z 5811@W7EES.OR.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.16
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 311 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Nov 2018
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to
07/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (08 Nov, 09 Nov, 10 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 459 km/s at 07/1835Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 07/1756Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
07/1832Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 10832 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (08 Nov) and quiet to minor storm
levels on days two and three (09 Nov, 10 Nov).
III. Event probabilities 08 Nov-10 Nov
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 07 Nov 069
Predicted 08 Nov-10 Nov 070/070/070
90 Day Mean 07 Nov 069
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Nov 009/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Nov 008/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Nov-10 Nov 006/005-011/016-014/018
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Nov-10 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/35/35
Minor Storm 01/25/25
Major-severe storm 01/05/05
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/10/10
Minor Storm 20/25/25
Major-severe storm 15/55/60
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