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W7EES > SWPC 12.11.18 03:38l 47 Lines 1693 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 5909_W7EES
Read: GUEST
Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<IR2UBX<IW2OHX<IW0QNL<JH4XSY<N3HYM<KF5JRV<W9JUN<W7EES
Sent: 181112/0034Z 5909@W7EES.OR.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.17
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 315 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Nov 2018
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10/2100Z to
11/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (12 Nov, 13 Nov, 14 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 624 km/s at 10/2313Z. Total IMF reached 6
nT at 11/2041Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
11/1841Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 1341 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (12 Nov) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (13 Nov, 14 Nov).
III. Event probabilities 12 Nov-14 Nov
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 Nov 069
Predicted 12 Nov-14 Nov 070/070/070
90 Day Mean 11 Nov 069
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Nov 010/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Nov 009/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Nov-14 Nov 011/012-008/010-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Nov-14 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/15/15
Minor Storm 10/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/25/25
Major-severe storm 40/25/25
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