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W7EES > SWPC 18.11.18 02:58l 49 Lines 1749 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 5961_W7EES
Read: GUEST
Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<LU4ECL<VE2PKT<N3HYM<KC9VYU<W9JUN<W7EES
Sent: 181116/2249Z 5961@W7EES.OR.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.17
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 320 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Nov 2018
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15/2100Z to
16/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on day one (17 Nov) and
expected to be very low on days two and three (18 Nov, 19 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 383 km/s at 15/2112Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
15/2143Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -2 nT at
16/0511Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 1315 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (17 Nov) and quiet to unsettled levels
on days two and three (18 Nov, 19 Nov).
III. Event probabilities 17 Nov-19 Nov
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 Nov 071
Predicted 17 Nov-19 Nov 071/071/071
90 Day Mean 16 Nov 069
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Nov 001/001
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Nov 002/003
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Nov-19 Nov 006/005-008/008-009/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Nov-19 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/20
Minor Storm 01/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 20/25/25
Major-severe storm 15/20/30
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