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W7EES > SWPC 18.11.18 18:14l 48 Lines 1691 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 6009_W7EES
Read: GUEST
Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<IZ3LSV<IW0QNL<JH4XSY<N3HYM<KF5JRV<W9JUN<W7EES
Sent: 181118/1608Z 6009@W7EES.OR.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.17
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 321 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Nov 2018
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16/2100Z to
17/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (18
Nov, 19 Nov, 20 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 363 km/s at 17/0158Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
17/0403Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
17/0314Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 1094 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (18 Nov,
19 Nov, 20 Nov).
III. Event probabilities 18 Nov-20 Nov
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 17 Nov 073
Predicted 18 Nov-20 Nov 073/073/073
90 Day Mean 17 Nov 069
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Nov 001/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Nov 002/002
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Nov-20 Nov 008/008-009/008-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Nov-20 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/20/10
Minor Storm 01/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/25/25
Major-severe storm 20/30/20
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