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W7EES > SWPC 19.11.18 03:57l 49 Lines 1691 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 6010_W7EES
Read: GUEST
Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<IZ3LSV<IW0QNL<JH4XSY<JE7YGF<LU4ECL<HR1PAQ<CX2SA<N3HYM<KC9VYU<
W9JUN<W7EES
Sent: 181119/0145Z 6010@W7EES.OR.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.17
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 322 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Nov 2018
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17/2100Z to
18/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (19
Nov, 20 Nov, 21 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 424 km/s at 17/2226Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at
18/1121Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
18/1405Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 788 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (19 Nov,
20 Nov, 21 Nov).
III. Event probabilities 19 Nov-21 Nov
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 18 Nov 072
Predicted 19 Nov-21 Nov 072/072/071
90 Day Mean 18 Nov 069
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Nov 001/000
Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Nov 003/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Nov-21 Nov 009/008-007/008-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Nov-21 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/10/20
Minor Storm 05/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/25/25
Major-severe storm 25/20/30
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