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W7EES > SWPC 21.11.18 04:34l 46 Lines 1600 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 6037_W7EES
Read: GUEST
Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<IR2UBX<IW2OHX<IW0QNL<JH4XSY<JE7YGF<LU4ECL<PI8LAP<GB7YEW<N3HYM<
W7EES
Sent: 181121/0155Z 6037@W7EES.OR.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.17
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 324 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Nov 2018
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19/2100Z to
20/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (21 Nov, 22 Nov, 23 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19/2100Z to 20/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 437 km/s at 20/1104Z. Total IMF reached 12
nT at 20/0317Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at
20/0421Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (21 Nov) and quiet levels
on days two and three (22 Nov, 23 Nov).
III. Event probabilities 21 Nov-23 Nov
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 20 Nov 071
Predicted 21 Nov-23 Nov 070/070/070
90 Day Mean 20 Nov 069
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Nov 002/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Nov 007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Nov-23 Nov 008/008-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Nov-23 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/10/10
Minor Storm 05/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/20/20
Major-severe storm 25/20/15
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