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W7EES > SWPC 02.12.18 05:49l 47 Lines 1617 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 6191_W7EES
Read: GUEST
Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<IR2UBX<IW2OHX<IW0QNL<VE2PKT<N3HYM<KC9VYU<W9JUN<W7EES
Sent: 181202/0337Z 6191@W7EES.OR.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.17
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 335 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Dec 2018
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30/2100Z to
01/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (02 Dec, 03 Dec, 04 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 01/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 414 km/s at 01/1916Z. Total IMF reached 10
nT at 01/1737Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at
01/1554Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (02 Dec) and quiet
to active levels on days two and three (03 Dec, 04 Dec).
III. Event probabilities 02 Dec-04 Dec
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 01 Dec 069
Predicted 02 Dec-04 Dec 068/068/068
90 Day Mean 01 Dec 069
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Nov 002/000
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Dec 009/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Dec-04 Dec 021/028-011/012-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Dec-04 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 45/25/25
Minor Storm 25/10/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 05/15/15
Minor Storm 20/25/25
Major-severe storm 70/40/40
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