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W7EES > SWPC 03.12.18 00:20l 46 Lines 1573 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 6209_W7EES
Read: GUEST
Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<IR2UBX<IW2OHX<IW0QNL<JH4XSY<N3HYM<KC9VYU<W9JUN<W7EES
Sent: 181202/2210Z 6209@W7EES.OR.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.17
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 336 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Dec 2018
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to
02/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (03 Dec, 04 Dec, 05 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 472 km/s at 02/1907Z. Total IMF reached 8
nT at 02/1116Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
02/1116Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one, two, and three (03 Dec, 04
Dec, 05 Dec).
III. Event probabilities 03 Dec-05 Dec
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 02 Dec 069
Predicted 03 Dec-05 Dec 068/068/068
90 Day Mean 02 Dec 069
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Dec 004/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Dec 012/016
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Dec-05 Dec 011/012-008/010-011/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Dec-05 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/25/30
Minor Storm 10/10/10
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor Storm 25/25/30
Major-severe storm 40/40/35
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