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W7EES > SWPC 04.12.18 03:37l 48 Lines 1643 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 6235_W7EES
Read: GUEST
Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<IR2UBX<IW2OHX<UA6ADV<CX2SA<HP2BWJ<N3HYM<KC9VYU<W9JUN<W7EES
Sent: 181204/0130Z @:W7EES.OR.USA.NOAM #:6235 BPQ6.0.17
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 337 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Dec 2018
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to
03/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (04 Dec, 05 Dec, 06 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 507 km/s at 03/1316Z. Total IMF reached 9
nT at 03/1440Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
03/1444Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (04 Dec), unsettled to minor
storm levels on day two (05 Dec) and quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (06 Dec).
III. Event probabilities 04 Dec-06 Dec
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 Dec 068
Predicted 04 Dec-06 Dec 068/068/068
90 Day Mean 03 Dec 069
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Dec 009/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Dec 008/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Dec-06 Dec 009/012-015/020-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Dec-06 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/35/25
Minor Storm 10/20/05
Major-severe storm 01/05/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/20
Minor Storm 25/25/30
Major-severe storm 40/45/25
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