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W7EES > SWPC 08.12.18 02:33l 48 Lines 1714 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 6306_W7EES
Read: GUEST
Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<IR2UBX<SR1BSZ<LU4ECL<CX2ACB<XE1FH<VE2PKT<N3HYM<KC9VYU<W9JUN<
W7EES
Sent: 181208/0021Z 6306@W7EES.OR.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.17
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 341 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Dec 2018
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06/2100Z to
07/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (08 Dec, 09 Dec, 10 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 536 km/s at 07/1747Z. Total IMF reached 11
nT at 07/0616Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at
07/0523Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 138 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (08 Dec), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (09 Dec) and quiet levels on day three (10 Dec).
III. Event probabilities 08 Dec-10 Dec
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 07 Dec 070
Predicted 08 Dec-10 Dec 070/070/068
90 Day Mean 07 Dec 069
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Dec 003/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Dec 009/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Dec-10 Dec 011/008-008/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Dec-10 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 30/20/10
Minor Storm 10/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/20/20
Minor Storm 30/25/20
Major-severe storm 30/20/10
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