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W7EES > SWPC 10.12.18 00:32l 48 Lines 1685 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 6338_W7EES
Read: GUEST
Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<IR2UBX<IW2OHX<IR1UAW<IZ3LSV<IK6ZDE<VE2PKT<N3HYM<N9LCF<K9CTB<
W7EES
Sent: 181209/2211Z 6338@W7EES.OR.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.17
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 343 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Dec 2018
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08/2100Z to
09/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There is currently 1 numbered sunspot region on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (10 Dec, 11 Dec, 12 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 644 km/s at 09/1703Z. Total IMF reached 11
nT at 09/1106Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
09/2034Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 427 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (10 Dec, 12
Dec) and quiet levels on day two (11 Dec).
III. Event probabilities 10 Dec-12 Dec
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 09 Dec 072
Predicted 10 Dec-12 Dec 068/068/068
90 Day Mean 09 Dec 069
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Dec 010/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Dec 005/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Dec-12 Dec 009/008-005/005-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Dec-12 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/10/15
Minor Storm 05/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/15/15
Minor Storm 25/15/25
Major-severe storm 20/15/25
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