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W7EES > SWPC 11.12.18 19:34l 47 Lines 1710 Bytes #999 (0) @ WW
BID : 6361_W7EES
Read: GUEST
Subj: Solar-Geophysical Activity
Path: IW8PGT<IR2UBX<SR1BSZ<LU4ECL<PI8LAP<GB7YEW<N9PMO<N9LCF<K9CTB<N9LYA<
W7EES
Sent: 181211/0047Z 6361@W7EES.OR.USA.NOAM BPQ6.0.17
Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 344 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Dec 2018
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09/2100Z to
10/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (11 Dec, 12 Dec, 13 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 669 km/s at 10/0540Z. Total IMF reached 5
nT at 09/2100Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
10/0905Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 1081 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (11 Dec), quiet to unsettled levels on
day two (12 Dec) and quiet to active levels on day three (13 Dec).
III. Event probabilities 11 Dec-13 Dec
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 10 Dec 071
Predicted 11 Dec-13 Dec 068/068/068
90 Day Mean 10 Dec 069
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Dec 006/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Dec 011/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Dec-13 Dec 005/005-007/008-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Dec-13 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/15/20
Minor Storm 01/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/20
Minor Storm 15/25/25
Major-severe storm 15/25/20
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